Chiefs Beat Struggling Redskins

The offensively struggling Kansas City Chiefs have finally found a way to win-play a team with a more stagnant offense than their own. The Chiefs gave Todd Haley his first win as a NFL head coach on Sunday with a—6 win over the Washington Redskins. Kansas City won despite not scoring a touchdown, compiling their– points via 4 Ryan Succop field goals and a game ending safety.

To successfully bet on NFL football you occasionally have to put aside W/L records and look at the underlying statistics. Those who did that found reason to take Kansas City as +6′ road underdogs and were rewarded with the outright victory. Kansas City is now 2-4 against the NFL pointspread and has covered two straight while Washington is a dismal 1-5 versus the money.

After the contest, Haley sounded more relieved than excited about finally putting a “W” on the board:

“We made it pretty difficult, right down to the end. We’ve pushed through a very difficult period. We needed to get some positive reinforcement with a win.”

Kansas City QB Matt Cassel also won for the first time since coming over from New England in the off season. His postgame comments were more upbeat:

“There’s been a lot of change, but this has definitely been special. We rose to the occasion. We made some big plays. We put ourselves in a position to score points.”

Embattled Redskins’ coach Jim Zorn was stripped of his offensive play calling duties by team management after the contest. In one of his last decisions in that role, he pulled starter Jason Campbell at halftime and went with Todd Collins. He explained his move as follows:

“I felt the need to create a spark on our football team offensively and went with Todd. I think the guys responded well. We kept our spark, at times, and then we refizzled.”

The Redskins have managed to win only two of their first six games despite being the only team in NFL history to play their first six games of the season against winless opponents. They’ll get another chance to silence their doubters next Monday night as they host the Philadelphia Eagles. The Skins are +6′ home underdogs with the total set at 38′. They’ll have a bye the next week and return to action on November 8th against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome. Kansas City will try to string together back to back wins as they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. There’s currently no line on the game pending San Diego’s Monday Night Football contest against the Denver Broncos.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup soccer betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

The Basics Of Betting On Sports Futures

Many serious sports bettors consider the futures wager the province of rank amateurs trying to go for the big killing. They’re the sports betting equivalent of the wanna-be stock investor who always gripes if only I had bought Microsoft when they went public. They’re not the type who’ll do the work to grind out profits in the market, nor are they forward thinking enough to find the next big company to go public. They’d rather lay some money on a high priced dog and hope for the best, which seldom (if ever) occurs. Right now at some sportsbooks a $100 bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to win the 2010 Superbowl will pay back $10,000. The problem is that the true odds of Cincinnati winning the Superbowl are probably in the range of 50,000 to 1 which makes the +10000 you’re getting in this bet a bad value from the get-go.

For the more serious bettor, there’s a number of obvious problems with futures wagers. They require that your wagering ‘capital’ be tied up for months. Furthermore, once you’ve placed your bet you’re at the mercy of injuries, suspensions, trades and the other numerous factors that can spell defeat for a sports team. It’s no simple task keeping up with these variables on a day to day basis, and predicting them over a longer term is the province of psychics and not sports handicappers.

Despite their downsides, futures bets have an important place in the investment oriented sports bettor’s arsenal. The ‘prime directive’ for serious sports betting is to think of it not in terms of wins and losses, but in terms of value. Futures wagers frequently present opportunities to lock in line value and create overlay situations. In some cases, judicious use of futures can produce situations in which a bettor can realize a profit from any outcome! Below are some basic concepts for properly using futures wagers to maximize value.

Futures can present an opportunity to ‘earn’ a greater value on certain bets. For example, it has become common for sports books to take action on entertainment events like the Academy Awards. By paying close attention to Hollywood gossip and entertainment news, a bettor can actually have a better take on these outcomes than the bookmaker.

Some books even take bets on the major awards like ‘Best Picture’ and ‘Best Director’ before the nominations are actually announced. In this situation, a bettor who can read the ‘buzz’ on which films will be nominated can find substantially better values before the nominations are announced.

The way the film industry works makes futures bets of this sort particularly appealing. Release schedules for films are set well in advance, and the cut off date for Academy Award consideration is the end of the calendar year. That way it’s easy for a handicapper to isolate a number of serious Oscar candidates out of the hundreds of films released annually. With more work, that can be narrowed down even more and once a workable number of potential winners has been reached it’s just a matter of shopping around for the best value.

It’s also possible to leverage value in the ’stick and ball’ sports with future wagers. There are obviously more variables in sports than in the entertainment industry and the top teams are never going to be found ‘under the radar’. For example, you can already bet that the Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you’ll be hard pressed to find a value price on such a popular team with the general public.

To find value on this sort of wager you need to look for ‘dark horse’ candidates. For example, at midseason you could have bet on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the 2009 Stanley Cup at prices as high as 25/1 or 30/1. Now, they’re one of four teams remaining and are priced at 5/1 to 7/1 depending on the book.

This play didn’t necessitate a crystal ball or a Canadien genie with a profound interest in hockey–instead, it was a simple matter of determining teams that offered true odds of championship success that were lower than the price offered in the future bet. At prices like 25/1 or 40/1 its possible to back several dark horse ‘candidates’ and if one or more enjoy postseason success it presents a number of opportunities to hedge and guarantee a profit.

Don’t forget the field. Many bettors dismiss plays on the field in a futures wager out of hand, thinking that the wager represents all of the entrants not good enough to justify an individual price. If you pay attention, however, you can frequently use a field wager to your advantage. Shortly after Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death at the 2001 Daytona 500 I found a sportsbook that was offering a field wager on the NASCAR rookie of the year award at 15/1. Richard Childress Racing hadn’t officially announced Harvick as the fulltime replacement for Earnhardt, but the word on the streets strongly suggested that would be the case. I knew that Harvick was a talented young driver (he was the 2000 Busch Series rookie of the year), but the unique situation with a rookie driving for one of the best financed and most experienced teams in the sport was too good to pass up. I made the bet on Harvick at just the right time, since after he was announced as the replacement for Earnhardt the line dropped to 5/1. After he won his first race (in his third race) the line dropped to 2/1 and by mid season the field was a -250 chalk.

This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar circumstances that were still good value plays but didn’t work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasn’t uncommon to find a field bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You wont be able to take advantage of the field bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and think out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.

Of course its crucial to shop around for any futures book play to find the best price. It’s a smart thing to do on any wagering proposition, but the price differential on futures wagers often vary widely from book to book. A little bit of work can produce a significantly better price which means more value.

Ross Everett is a well known writer specializing in sports handicapping, horse racing, travel and fencing. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a number of Internet and broadcast media outlets. He lives in Southern Nevada with three dogs and a wombat.

Panthers Derail Struggling Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Jake Delhomme struggled on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and was fortunate that his running backs bailed him out. Delhomme threw for only 65 yards with two interceptions, but D’Angelo Williams (152 yards) and Jonathan Stewart (110 yards) kept the chains moving as the Panthers won their second straight game defeating the Bucs 28-21. Tampa Bay has now lost ten straight dating back to last season and are 0-6 for the first time since’85. The fact that they ended up starting that year 0-9 on their way to a 1-15 record doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Carolina improved to 2-3 with the victory.

NFL sports bettors were faced with a choice between two teams with dismal ATS records in this game, and those who had the guts to take a 1-3 team as a -3 road favorite were rewarded with the cover. It was Carolina’s first NFL pointspread cover of the season and left them with a 1-4 record against the number. Tampa Bay has covered one of their six games this year. The 49 points scored went OVER the total of 40′. Tampa Bay has gone OVER in 4 of 6, while Carolina has exceeded the total in three of their five games.

Delhomme attempted only seven passes in the second half, but the way Williams and Stewart were running there was no reason to put the ball in the air. Williams said that even though Tampa Bay knew what was coming they couldn’t stop the Panthers’ running game:

“I’m sure everybody in the stadium knew what we were going to do. There were times they had nine in the box and we were still getting 7 or 8 yards.”

There’s been little impatience locally with Bucs’ rookie head coach Raheem Morris, but his weekly habit of explaining the obvious to rationalize yet another loss is starting to wear thin:

“We got overpowered at the end, and really throughout the game.”

Carolina safety Dante Wesley was ejected after clobbering Bucs’ return man Clifton Smith after a fair catch call. After the game, Wesley gave this defense for his actions:

“I was just trying to make a play. You can check my record. I’ve never really tried to hurt anybody. I’ve never tried to take a cheap shot on anybody.”

Wesley could face a possible fine or suspension from the NFL but, in all fairness, it did appear to be a momentary mental lapse as he was trying to make a big play and not a deliberate attempt to injure Smith.

Tampa’s schedule has the look of them going from ‘the frying pan into the fire’ as they host the New England Patriots next Sunday-fresh off of their 57 point drubbing of Tennessee. Carolina has an easier draw, hosting the Buffalo Bills next Sunday. The game is currently off the board pending the status of Bills’ QB Trent Edwards who suffered a concussion in Sunday’s win over the New York Jets. The Panthers will then play on the road the following two Sundays, traveling to Arizona and New Orleans.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Cincinnati Rips Chicago

Former Chicago Bears running back Cedric Benson got revenge on the team that let him go in the best possible way. Benson amassed 189 yards rushing and led his new team, the Cincinnati Bengals, to a 45-10 rout over the visiting Bears on Sunday. Carson Palmer threw for five touchdowns with no interceptions in the blowout victory. Cincinnati improved to 5-2 with the win while Chicago dropped to 3-3 on the NFL season.

The Bengals also made short work of the NFL pointspread, easily covering as +1′ home underdogs. Cincinnati improved to 4-3 against the number while Chicago evened their ATS mark at 3-3.

A smug Benson described his feelings after the win:

“Everybody knew it was going to be an emotional day. Everybody knew. What a wonderful day and a wonderful thing, to go out there and strut your stuff.”

Despite the evidence to the contrary, Benson downplayed the motive of revenge:

“I continue to be as graceful as I can be. I’m not shoving anything in anybody’s face. Like I say, it wasn’t a revenge day for me. I just wanted to take advantage of the opportunities.”

He said his biggest problem was trying to keep his emotions in check and play under control:

“There were a few times where I may have gotten a little too hyped up, a little too antsy. A couple of drives, I found myself having to calm myself down and gather my emotions to stay poised. Once I got past that, we were good to go. Keep it rolling.”

Bengals’ receiver Chad Ochocinco had 10 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns. He shared his thoughts postgame:

“I don’t understand why it went this way today and why it didn’t go that way last week or the week before that. The offensive line played unbelievable. For Ced to run the way he did today and for us to be able to throw, we could have done what we wanted to do.”

Chicago gave up more points than in any game all season, a fact that left defensive end Alex Brown looking for answers:

“That was pretty embarrassing. It’s embarrassing to come out and play like that. I tip my hat to their whole team. Cedric ran the ball like crazy. They did whatever they wanted to do.”

The Bengals will enjoy a bye week before hosting the Baltimore Ravens on November 8. They’ll then play two games on the road at Pittsburgh and Oakland. Chicago will try to get back on track this Sunday as they host the Cleveland Browns. The Bears are -13′ home favorites with the total set at 40. They’ll host the Arizona Cardinals the following Sunday before heading west for a Thursday night game against the San Francisco 49ers on November 12.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Pros and Cons

Among the sports betting public there’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That’s not really surprising, since there doesn’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater “lock” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.

The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone–simply stated, the games don’t count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It’s hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable ’spot’ during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.

The preseason NFL betting enthusiast would suggest, however, that it is the uncertainty that characterizes these games that makes for such a strong wagering opportunity. For example, in a matchup between a championship level team and a losing team you often see strongly divergent approaches to the game. Successful teams have more to worry about in terms of player injuries, fewer areas in which they need to evaluate talent, and more continuity in the areas of coaching and team chemistry. They often view preseason games as a chore, and have little interest in their outcome as long as they keep their superstars healthy.

Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A “lesser” team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they’ll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games”whether or not they count in the standings”are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won’t have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league’s elite can mean a lot more.

Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don’t count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won’t have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team’s pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.

The Internet has become a very valuable weapon in the NFL preseason handicapper’s arsenal. Simply following the local media reports of NFL teams can often produce a wealth of ‘mission critical’ betting information. The combination of anxious beat writers, little in the way of ‘real’ news, and a less guarded approach by coaches to games that ‘don’t count’ can often reveal game strategies, playing time for key personnel, or even a team’s specific agenda for a particular game. Sometime coaches will come right out and say that evaluating a certain position, or working on a specific offensive scheme is their top priority for a game. It’s a great way to find not only good teams to bet on, but strong situations to go against teams that are focused on something other than outscoring their opponent.

In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It’s a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other”and better”football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.

Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and scuba diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Washington Offense In A State Of Flux

The Washington Redskins are a mess right now. Head coach Jim Zorn has a tenuous hold on his job at best and after Sunday’s—6 loss to Kansas City was stripped of his offensive play calling duties. Management installed newly hired ‘offensive consultant’ Sherman Lewis as the new offensive play caller and the team has set up an awkward arrangement for him to get the plays to the quarterbacks. For that reason, starting QB Jason Campbell has some serious misgivings about the efficacy of the setup.

Lewis has only been out of retirement and with the team for two weeks, and has spent this week trying to ingest a crash course on the Redskins’ offensive schemes. While he was learning on the job, head coach Zorn was trying to put the best spin possible on the situation’:

“I need to have composure. I need to understand what the reality of the situation is, and I think our players expect me to rise up. We expect them to play under adverse conditions. We expect them to risk it all. … I’m conscious of what’s going on. I’m not naive about what’s going on, and yet I have to just hold back on any feelings and make the decisions.”

Quarterback Campbell is more concerned about the convoluted system of getting plays from Lewis to him:

“There’ll probably be a couple of plays I have in my head just in case if some reason it doesn’t get in on time.”

Here’s how things are supposed to work-Lewis will sit in the coaches’ box above the field and read the plays off a sheet. While Lewis has years of experience working in the so called ‘West Coast Offense’, Zorn left doubt that he really knows what he’s doing at this point stressing that Lewis “doesn’t know the protections” and “doesn’t know the blitz schemes.” Nevertheless, he’ll be running the offense when the Redskins take on Philadelphia this Monday night.

Once Lewis figures out what to call, that’s when it really gets tricky. He’ll relay the plays via headset not to Zorn but to offensive coordinator Sherman Smith. Smith will then inform the quarterback what to run. Zorn is left in the role of a passive bystander on offense, though he will listen in to the playcalling on his headset.

Backup quarterback Todd Collins also shared his concern with the new arrangement:

“It is unsettling. I’ve never gone through this before. I’ve never had a play caller get changed in the middle of the season.”

Lewis didn’t exactly evoke a lot of confidence upon his hiring, where he revealed that he’d been calling bingo games at a seniors’ center to kill time since his retirement in 2004. Still, Collins gave him a guarded vote of confidence;

“I know he’s been studying last year’s game against the Eagles and seems to have a pretty good idea how he wants to call the game this week. It’s the same plays. He might coach them a little differently or highlight some different areas, but the offense hasn’t gone under an overhaul or anything like that.”

The Redskins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this season, so maybe the thinking is that things can’t get any worse.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Northern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Saints Top Dolphins To Remain Undefeated

With an offense that can strike as quickly as the New Orleans Saints’, they’re never out of a game. The Miami Dolphins found that out the hard way on Sunday as the Saints came roaring back from a 21 point deficit to win going away 46-34. Drew Brees threw for 298 yards and a touchdowns, though gave up three interceptions as New Orleans remained undefeated at 6-0 despite trailing in a game for the first time this season. Miami dropped to 2-4 on the year.

Adding insult to injury for NFL betting enthusiasts who backed Miami as +6 home underdogs, the Saints continued their rampage against the pointspread with a late game interception return for a touchdown to cover. New Orleans is 6-0 against the number this season, while Miami dropped to 2-4 against the spread. The 80 combined points sailed OVER the posted total of 47′.

After the game, Brees said that his team never lost confidence:

“There was no doubt on our sideline we would come back and win. They had given us their best shot, and we had played about as bad as we could play. All we had to do was string together a few drives and gain the momentum back. We knew it was going to happen, and it did.”

Following a rushing touchdown that gave his team their first lead of the game in the fourth quarter, Brees dunked the football over the goal post crossbar:

“There are times in the game when a team just needs an emotional lift. I felt like I had to do something to get everybody hyped. The first thing that came to mind was to dunk it.”

Saints’ linebacker Scott Shanle suggested that the game could portent good things to come:

“It can be a season-defining win. This was a test we hadn’t faced yet, and we couldn’t be happier with the way we responded.”

A dejected Ricky Williams explained how his team had lost:

“This was our game to win. We fought and we fought. They just fought harder at the end.”

Dolphins’ QB Vonte Davis said the defense was aware that with Brees in the game even a 21 point lead was tenuous at best:

“With Drew Brees, it’s like the score is 0-0. We knew they would come back and that it would be a tough game.”

The Saints will now host the Atlanta Falcons next Monday night. They’ll then face two struggling teams, taking on the Carolina Panthers at home the following Sunday and playing against the Rams at St. Louis on November 15. The Dolphins will play on the road against the New York Jets this Sunday. They’ll play at New England the following Sunday before returning home on November 15 to take on the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Northern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Del Mar: Southern California’s Horse Racing Capital

Southern California’s Del Mar Racetrack has been is often overshadowed by East Coast venues like Churchill Downs and Belmont Park. The reality is that the 72 year old track has a history to rival their better known counterparts that includes the greatest horses and jockeys in the sport, as well as a healthy dose of show biz glitz. Operated by the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club and located 20 miles North of San Diego, its perhaps most famous for its iconic slogan: “Where The Surf Meets the Turf.”

The Del Mar Race Track was founded in the late’30’s by a group of business and show biz elite, including Bing Crosby, Oliver Hardy and Jimmy Durante. During much of the pre WW II era, horse racing ran a close second to baseball in mainstream popularity, so these racing enthusiasts were clearly at the right place at the right time in terms of market forces.

The starpower drawn to the course was unprecedented. Bing Crosby himself greeted patrons at the gate on opening day, and during the late’30s and early’40s it became a place to be seen for Hollywood A-listers and those who aspired for celebrity. In addition to known gambling enthusiasts like W.C. Fields, Edgar Bergen and Red Skelton, the Del Mar patrons during that time also included some of the top female stars of the era including Ava Gardner, Paulette Goddard and Dorothy Lamour

In’38, Del Mar hosted an internationally anticipated match race between Seabiscuit and Ligaroti. This event drew a record crowd and gained worldwide notoriety for the track. Seabiscuit won the $25,000 winner-take-all duel by a nose, and would forever be enshrined in the annals of American popular culture. Horse racing at Del Mar continued to be a smash until the facility went dark in’41 due to World War II. It would remain closed until’45, and for a time was used as a training facility by the military.

After the war Del Mar didn’t miss a beat, and reopened the day after Japan surrendered to Allied Forces in Tokyo Bay. That day drew over 21,000 fans to the park and set a new wagering record of over $950,000. The track flourished during the post war economic boom years, and improved transportation between the major urban centers in Southern California–along with a new crop of stars including Mickey Rooney, Jimmy Durante and Desi Arnez, Jr.–kept the track in the limelight.

Del Mar remains a viable part of the thoroughbred community to this day. Theyve updated their facility, with a state of the art grand stand and most recently a synthetic polytrack surface that was installed in 2007. The racing season at Del Mar begins in mid July, and hosts crowds of 20,000+ on a daily basis throughout.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Common Sports Betting Futures Mistakes To Avoid

Sports book futures bets are an increasing popular and potentially profitable way to wager on the outcome of a full season. There’s a few common mistakes that novice players make that can be easily avoided by paying attention to the following:

You gotta shop around: More specifically, you have to ’shop points’ just as you would with a straight bet. This is crucial in all forms of sports betting but particularly key with futures wagers. There are often greater variances in the prices from book to book on future plays than any other type of wagering proposition. The reason for this is simple–most books are less concern with what the ‘other guys’ are doing as they are with keeping their own position ‘in balance’. All in all, the sports betting marketplace just doesn’t react as quickly to changing futures prices as it does to individual game lines.

Don’t try to pick the winner in a competitive marketplace: This may sound sort of counter intuitive since the general idea of betting on futures is to determine the actual winner but it’s really not. Like everything else, its essential to always be mindful of the value you’re getting. In a futures market with several legitimate contenders at the top the price offered is seldom high enough to properly compensate for the risk you’re assuming. Here’s an example: in a hypothetical NCAA hoops tournament Duke is +200 to win the national championship. They’ve certainly got a shot, but at a payback of only 2/1 its hard to justify a wager at this point with the potential for so many interceding events that can make a championship more problematic. Such events as injuries, a tough tournament draw or even just going into a slump at the wrong time can happen to any team but when you bet a higher priced team–a ‘dark horse mid major at 15/1 for example–you’re getting “compensation” for assuming the “risks” of betting on a proposition with so many unknown variables.

In mathematical terms, we’re simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring. Let’s say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they’re a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.

In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria’s Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.

Don’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn’t make it a good value. If you’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.

Wagering value is just as important at the bottom of the barrel as it is at the top. Just because you’re getting a huge potential payback on a big dog doesn’t make it a good value. Make sure that the payback you’re getting presents an overlay situation–even on a huge underdog.

Don’t waste your money on ridiculous prop bets: Occasionally sports books offer ridiculous bets to get press or to be funny. For example, a book once offered odds on Demi Moore, Ashton Kutcher and Bruce Willis all hopping into bed together and releasing a video tape of the proceedings. You’d no doubt get a huge payback were this to happen, but the ‘true odds’ of such an event transpiring far exceeded even a big potential payback.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Rio De Janerio Wins 2016 Summer Olympic Games

South America will host the Summer Olympic Games for the first time in 2016, as Rio De Janeiro, Brazil was awarded the honor on Friday. Rio beat out the US choice of Chicago, Illinois along with Tokyo, Japan and Madrid, Spain to earn the right to host the games. Despite a high pressure effort from the American power elite–including President Barak Obama and TV gabfest queen Oprah Winfrey–Chicago was the first city eliminated from contention.

Bookmakers offered odds on the host city choice, with Rio listed as second favorite at +200. Chicago had been the wagering favorite at most books, particularly after President Obama got involved personally in the US bid effort. Chicago was bet as high as a -300 favorite, while Madrid and Tokyo were priced in the +250 range. Some suggest that Tokyo didnt deserve to have such short odds, but was the beneficiary of regional pride from the notoriously enthusiastic betting population of Japan.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President of Brazil, got the better of his US counterpart with a passionate speech that stood in marked contrast to Obamas typically baleful collection of talking points;

“It is a time to address this imbalance. It is time to light the Olympic cauldron in a tropical country.”

The Olympic committee was apparently swayed by this presentation and paid no mind to Rios many downsides. It is without a doubt the most dangerous of the finalist cities, where drug cartels and armed bands of thugs roam without impunity. Well do to Rio citizens are used to removing watches and jewelry before they drive anywhere lest they be targeted by carjacking brigands. Rios murder rate is also one of the highest in the world. Brazilian bid officials have stressed that security will be a priority at the games and it better be lest the Olympics turn into a bloodbath. For the time being, however, the mood in Rio was one of celebration with over 50,000 residents dancing and partying in the streets.

Some IOC members suggested that the summary dismissal of Chicagos bid was more of a rebuke of the notoriously corrupt USOC. The last two Olympics held in the US were tainted by crime and corruption. The’96 Atlanta Olympics were disrupted by a terrorist bombing, while the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games were marred by a well known bribery and corruption scandal.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

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